Why This Time is Different

Economists are debating whether we will have a recession or not, and if we do, will it be a hard-landing or a soft-landing. 

Many of the traditional indicators are pointing toward recession, and yet we continue to get surprisingly good numbers in some of the data. 

The chart below shows one reason this time is different.  It graphs "excess demand for labor."   

As you can see, there are 9.6 million job openings compared to 5.7 million job seekers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (data through March 2023).  Excess demand for labor makes this time different.